While Walker went into election day leading in the polls, it’s extremely difficult for pollsters to model the turnout in such a unique election and hence know who to include in their polls. And if they based their turnout model on the 2010 electorate, they may be surprised by some of the turnout numbers we now have from today.  Turnout is up among union households, hardly a surprise given the public employee collective bargaining fight that set this all in motion, but it’s also down in rural areas, which tend more conservative, up in urban Milwaukee, and way up in liberal Dane county. The question becomes precisely which voters changed their behavior, which we’ll start to find out soon.